Earnings Are Beating. Oil Is at $98. Tomorrow’s Ceasefire Deadline Is All That Matters.
Market Snapshot
The Signal
The US economy is holding up better than anyone expected. UnitedHealth beat Q1 estimates by a wide margin and raised its full-year profit forecast, sending shares up 7%. Quest Diagnostics beat too. US retail sales in March, the first full month of the Iran war, came in above expectations. Strip out gasoline station sales and growth was still solid. Corporate America is absorbing the oil shock. But none of that matters if tomorrow goes wrong. The US-Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday. Brent oil surged 2.8% today to $98 as traders positioned for the deadline. At its peak since the war began, oil hit $119. If talks in Pakistan fail and the ceasefire collapses, markets will not wait to find out what happens next.
“It has become cliched to say that the economic hit will depend on the duration of the conflict, but that cliche does ring true.” (Brian Jacobsen, Annex Wealth Management)
What To Watch
- →Tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline. Pakistan-hosted talks are the last line before markets price in a full re-escalation. If talks break down, expect oil to move back toward $110 fast.
- →Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing, ongoing today. Trump’s Fed Chair pick pledged to fight inflation even as Trump publicly demands rate cuts. That standoff shapes rate expectations for the rest of 2026.
- →Earnings season pace. With UNH, Quest, and retail all beating, the bar is rising for the rest of Q1 reports. Any miss from a major company now carries more weight than it would have two weeks ago.
