Oil Hits $108 as Trump’s Iran Speech Stokes War Fears
Market Snapshot
The Signal
Trump’s Wednesday night address on the Iran war gave markets the one thing they were most afraid of: no exit. The president vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks” and offered no timeline for ending hostilities. Oil traders responded instantly. Brent crude jumped 7% to $108, while WTI briefly topped $113 before paring gains to around $103. Equities finished essentially flat after recovering most of their intraday losses on news that more than 40 nations had convened to discuss reopening the Hormuz Strait. That meeting ended without agreement. Five weeks into the war, the strait is still offline and Iran is now drafting legislation to formalise a permit system for ships wanting to pass through, with its military threatening “more crushing and more destructive” attacks to come.
“The key question in all investors’ minds is: When is this going to be over?”
What To Watch
- →Iran’s next moves: Tehran is drafting legislation to formalise Hormuz permit fees and has listed Gulf bases hosting US troops as potential targets. Any escalation beyond threats will push oil higher fast.
- →EIA weekly oil inventories: With supply disrupted and prices already elevated, a drawdown in US stockpiles could provide further fuel for the Brent rally above $110.
- →Fed speakers this week: At $108 oil, inflation expectations are creeping back up. Watch for any shift in tone on rate cuts, which had been priced in for mid-2026.
