US Sends Iran a 15-Point Peace Plan. Oil Fell 5%. Iran Said No.
Market Snapshot
The Signal
Overnight on Tuesday, reports emerged that the Trump administration had delivered a 15-point peace framework to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries. The plan, confirmed to NBC News by two regional sources and a US official, calls for a 30-day ceasefire while negotiations continue, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the dismantling of Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment sites. Pakistan has offered to formally mediate, with an in-person meeting between US and Iranian officials potentially days away.
Markets reacted instantly. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures jumped more than 1% before the open. WTI crude fell more than 3% to around $89 a barrel. Brent dropped 5% to roughly $94. By mid-morning the Dow was up 270 points and all major indices were in the green. Then Iranian state media reported that Tehran was rejecting the proposal outright, calling Trump’s peace push a ruse. Oil bounced off its lows, futures retreated from their highs, and the session turned into exactly the kind of whipsaw markets have been enduring since the war began on February 28.
“Markets desperately want to believe in the positive. Focus on the apparent 15-point US plan has received more attention than Iranian dismissals of this, or the fact that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is minimal.”
Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management
What To Watch
- →The Strait of Hormuz ship count. On Monday 5 ships passed through; on Tuesday, 6. Hundreds remain stuck. JPMorgan says the plan does not appear to address how the Strait would actually reopen. That detail is the one that moves oil markets, not a ceasefire declaration.
- →Pakistan’s role as mediator. Two sources confirmed Pakistan has been passing messages between the US and Iran for two days. If the in-person meeting materialises, that is a structural change from the one-sided Trump announcements that have driven markets so far.
- →WTI below $80 and Brent below $90. Trade Nation’s David Morrison called those levels the “healthy first step” signalling genuine oil market stabilisation. Until crude crosses those thresholds and holds, the macro damage from the war is still compounding.
