Macro Economics

Inflation hit 3.3% in March, gas prices jumped 21% in a single month, and real wages just turned negative. The Fed cannot cut rates into this. Here is why 2026 rate cuts are off the table.

A narrow waterway in the Middle East carries one-fifth of all globally traded oil. When conflict threatens it, oil prices and inflation spike worldwide. Here’s why 21 miles of water matter to your wallet.

Everyone is trading the ceasefire headlines. Larry Fink is warning about the scenario nobody is pricing: peace on paper, with Iran still controlling the Strait of Hormuz and oil stuck above 00.

Oil swung 40% in four weeks. History shows most geopolitical shocks recover in weeks. But one type does not. Here is how to tell the difference and what to do with your money.

The eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March 2026, a 10-month low. Costs are rising at the fastest rate in 3 years. France is in contraction. The ECB may now have to hike rates into a slowdown.

The Fed held rates and Powell warned inflation will run hotter this year. The Dow fell 700 points. Gold dropped 3.4% for its 6th consecutive losing session. Here is what happened, why gold is falling during an inflation warning, and what to watch next.

The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% today. Nobody is surprised. The story is the dot plot, the PPI number this morning, and what Powell said in what may be his final press conference as Fed Chair.

The Federal Reserve meets on March 18 with no good options. Cutting rates feeds inflation. Hiking into a weakening jobs market risks recession. This is the stagflation trap, and holding is not a solution.

February CPI held at 2.4%. But that data predates the oil surge entirely. March will be written in oil, and the Fed already knows it. March cut odds just fell below 1%.

Gas is up 16% in a week. The Fed cannot cut and cannot hike. That combination has a name: stagflation. Here is what it means and why it is harder to escape than a standard recession.